The Big Liberal Machine is Waking up Again

The Liberals went up seven points in a month; the Bloc went down seven.

The last time the Liberals were this strong in Quebec was in January 2004 – a full five years ago – when Paul Martin was still in power. That was before the sponsorship scandal hit him full-face.

CROP has the Liberals at 37% and the Bloc at 31 %. The lowly Conservatives and NDP are at 15% and 12% respectively.

All credit is due to the new leader Michael Ignatieff for hauling them up. He’s picked as “best for prime minister” by 45% of the CROP respondents. Harper came in at 12 %. That’s a long way back.

Ignatieff took Quebec by storm. Setting a frenetic pace – always on tour, two and three speeches a day, well-prepared speeches, well-organized thought, and most aware of what his audiences want to hear.

It’s the same outside Quebec. In Franco-Ontarian Embrun he tells them he’ll restore the Court Challenges Program to fund their linguistic battles. In Calgary he tells them they are the new economic capital of Canada. They love it.

He’s strong on television, witness the Sunday night’s Tout le Monde en Parle on Radio-Canada. He’s confident sharp during Question Period in the House of Commons, and knows his stuff. Finally the Harvard prof has become the guy next door who can be interesting about anything.

He has just published his 15th book, a literate account of his family’s Canadian roots, based on an account of his trip across Canada in the summer of 2000 exploring the George Grant side of his family.

The Liberal organization has doubled in size since he arrived – which isn’t saying much – but the money is coming in nicely. In the past three months of this year, He’s picked up $1.8 million compared to $830,000 during the same period last year. In Toronto recently he had 1,500 people at $1,000 a plate. Now that’s money.

Public opinion polls don’t predict election results. A lot can happen. But being in first place does give the troops a morale boost and make the message sound credible. For the first time in a long time, Quebec Liberals see themselves as winners.

But everything could change so quickly. Look at Harper cruising to a huge victory in Quebec the last time until the wrong things came out of his mouth. Quebeckers are cruel and fickle to their politicians.

Look at how poor Jean Charest has gone up and down, and down and up and now down again, more times than a roller coaster at La Ronde. Welcome to Quebec Mr. Ignatieff, enjoy it while it lasts.

But with Liberals so strong in Quebec, will the Bloc defeat the Conservatives in the Commons and force an election they could lose? Hardly. So Ignatieff’s poll success in Quebec may rob him of a chance to have a quick election.

But anything can happen. The big Liberal convention in Vancouver this weekend is supposed to be a coronation for Ignatieff.

But keep an eye on Justin Trudeau, co-chair of the event. He could steal the show from Ignatieff and become what Barack Obama became when he eloquently presented John Kerry at the U.S. Democratic Party convention in Chicago in 2004.